Nowcasting the Finnish economy with a large Bayesian vector autoregressive model

Juha Itkonen and Petteri Juvonen

No 6/2017, BoF Economics Review from Bank of Finland

Abstract: Timely and accurate assessment of current macroeconomic activity is crucial for policymakers and other economic agents. Nowcasting aims to forecast the current economic situation ahead of official data releases. We develop and apply a large Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) model to nowcast quarterly GDP growth rate of the Finnish economy. We study the BVAR model’s out-of-sample performance at different forecasting horizons, and compare to various bridge models and a dynamic factor model.

Keywords: ennusteet; mallit; BVAR; Suomi; bkt (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C52 C53 E32 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:bofecr:62017

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