Business surveys and inflation forecasting in China

Juuso Kaaresvirta and Aaron Mehrotra

No 22/2008, BOFIT Discussion Papers from Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT)

Abstract: We use business survey data collected by the People's Bank of China for inflation forecast-ing. Some survey indicators lead to enhanced forecasting performance relative to the uni-variate benchmark model, especially for a period of moderate inflation. However, the esti-mated models do not do a good job of tracking the recent pickup in Chinese inflation, due to increases in food prices.

Keywords: inflation forecasting; business surveys; China (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Journal Article: Business surveys and inflation forecasting in China (2009)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:bofitp:bdp2008_022

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