Forecast combination in the frequency domain

Gonçalo Faria and Fabio Verona

No 1/2023, Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers from Bank of Finland

Abstract: Predictability is time and frequency dependent. We propose a new forecasting method - forecast combination in the frequency domain - that takes this fact into account. With this method we forecast the equity premium and real GDP growth rate. Combining forecasts in the frequency domain produces markedly more accurate predictions relative to the standard forecast combination in the time domain, both in terms of statistical and economic measures of out-of-sample predictability. In a real-time forecasting exercise, the flexibility of this method allows to capture remarkably well the sudden and abrupt drops associated with recessions and further improve predictability.

Keywords: forecast combination; frequency domain; equity premium; GDP growth; Haar filter; wavelets (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C58 G11 G17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ets and nep-for
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:12023

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