Macro stress testing with a macroeconomic credit risk model for Finland

Kimmo Virolainen

No 18/2004, Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers from Bank of Finland

Abstract: In the discussion paper, we employ data on industry-specific corporate sector bankruptcies over the time period from 1986 to 2003 and estimate a macroeconomic credit risk model for the Finnish corporate sector.The sample period includes a severe recession with significantly higher-than-average default rates in the early 1990s.The results suggest a significant relationship between corporate sector default rates and key macroeconomic factors including GDP, interest rates and corporate indebtedness.The estimated model is employed to analyse corporate credit risks conditional on current macroeconomic conditions.Furthermore, the paper presents some examples of applying the model to macro stress testing, ie analysing the effects of various adverse macroeconomic events on the banks credit risks stemming from the corporate sector.The results of the stress tests suggest that Finnish corporate sector credit risks are fairly limited in the current macroeconomic environment.

Keywords: banking; credit risk; stress tests (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C15 G21 G28 G33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/211986/1/bof-rdp2004-018.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:rdp2004_018

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers from Bank of Finland Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics ().