Do monetary indicators (still) predict euro area inflation?

Boris Hofmann

No 2006,18, Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies from Deutsche Bundesbank

Abstract: This paper assesses the performance of monetary indicators in predicting euro area HICP inflation out-of-sample over the period since the start of EMU considering a wide range of forecasting models, including standard bivariate forecasting models, factor models, simple combination forecasts as well as trivariate two-pillar Phillips Curve type forecasting models. The results suggest that monetary indicators are still useful indicators for inflation in the euro area, but that a thorough and broad based monetary analysis is needed to extract the information content of monetary developments for future inflation.

Keywords: euro area; inflation; leading indicators; money (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E31 E40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-eec, nep-for, nep-mac and nep-mon
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (34)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/19646/1/200618dkp.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:4469

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies from Deutsche Bundesbank Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics ().