Central bank information shocks and exchange rates

Thorsten Franz

No 13/2020, Discussion Papers from Deutsche Bundesbank

Abstract: The dynamic effects of ECB announcements, disentangled into pure monetary policy and central bank information shocks, on the euro (EUR) exchange rate are examined using a Bayesian Proxy Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model fed with high-frequency data. Contractionary monetary policy shocks result in a sizable appreciation of the nominal effective and bilateral EUR exchange rates, peaking on impact. By contrast, despite similar effects on interest rate differentials, responses to central bank information shocks exhibit strong heterogeneities across currency pairs. This disparity can be rationalized by an increase in investors' risk appetite, as measured by the VIX, triggering capital flows into speculative currencies when the ECB reveals a surprisingly sanguine economic outlook. In line with this, the EUR depreciates against a high-yielding carry trade investment portfolio, while it appreciates against a low-yielding carry trade funding portfolio.

Keywords: central bank information; monetary policy; exchange rate; Proxy VAR; high-frequency data; carry trades (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E52 E58 F31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-eec, nep-ifn, nep-mac and nep-mon
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:bubdps:132020

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