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With a little help from my friends: Survey-based derivation of euro area short rate expectations at the effective lower bound

Felix Geiger and Fabian Schupp

No 27/2018, Discussion Papers from Deutsche Bundesbank

Abstract: The estimation of dynamic term structure models (DTSMs) turns out to be challenging in the presence of a small sample. It is exacerbated if the sample is characterized by a prolonged period of low interest rates near a time-varying effective lower bound. These challenges all weigh heavily when estimating a DTSM for the euro area OIS yield curve. Against this background, we propose a shadow-rate term structure model (SRTSM) that includes a time-varying effective lower bound and accounts for the spread between the policy and short-term OIS rate. It also allows for future changes in the effective lower bound and incorporates survey information. The model allows to adequately assess short-term monetary policy rate expectations and it generates far-distant rate expectations that are correlated with an estimated equilibrium nominal short rate derived from a macroeconomic model set-up. Our results also highlight the signaling channel of non-standard monetary policy shocks in the run-up to asset purchases identified based on a non-linear high-frequency external instrument approach. Our model outperforms DTSM specifications without above modeling features from a statistical and economic perspective. We confirm our findings employing a Monte Carlo simulation.

Keywords: term structure modeling; short rate expectations; lower bound; survey information; yield curve decomposition; monetary policy; euro area (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 E43 E44 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-eec, nep-mac and nep-mon
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:bubdps:272018

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