Anticipation effects of protectionist U.S. trade policies
No 52/2020, Discussion Papers from Deutsche Bundesbank
This paper investigates the international spillover effects of U.S. trade protection. Using micro-level data on anti-dumping, countervailing duties, and safeguards, I develop a new measure of U.S. trade policy announcement shocks for the period 1988-2015 that is free of confounding factors. Estimates using the new measure indicate that announced, but not yet imposed, U.S. trade restrictions give rise to contractions in major trading partners' output and investment. Counterfactual results indicate that a decline in business confidence accounts for the lion's share of these anticipation effects. A narrative analysis that quantifies the extent of newspaper coverage of U.S. trade protection shows that media attention facilitates the propagation of protectionist shocks. The results are consistent with an expectations channel of trade policy.
Keywords: Anticipation Effects; Business Cycles; Announcement Shocks; Protectionism; Trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 F13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Journal Article: Anticipation effects of protectionist U.S. trade policies (2021)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:bubdps:522020
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Discussion Papers from Deutsche Bundesbank Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics ().