Price adjustment to news with uncertain precision

Nikolaus Hautsch, Dieter Hess and Christoph Müller

No 08-04 [rev.], CFR Working Papers from University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR)

Abstract: We analyze how markets adjust to new information when the reliability of news is uncertain and has to be estimated itself. We propose a Bayesian learning model where market participants receive fundamental information along with noisy estimates of news' precision. It is shown that the efficiency of a precision estimate drives the the slope and the shape of price response functions to news. Increasing estimation errors induce stronger nonlinearities in price responses. Analyzing high-frequency reactions of Treasury bond futures prices to employment releases, we find strong empirical support for the model's predictions and show that the consideration of precision uncertainty is statistically and economically important.

Keywords: Bayesian learning; macroeconomic announcements; information quality; precision signals (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E44 G14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/70120/1/736378464.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Price adjustment to news with uncertain precision (2012)
Working Paper: Price Adjustment to News with Uncertain Precision (2008)
Working Paper: Price adjustment to news with uncertain precision (2008)
Working Paper: Price adjustment to news with uncertain precision (2008)
Working Paper: Price adjustment to news with uncertain precision (2008)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:0804r

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