The real-time impact of the war on Russian imports: a synthetic control method approach

Alessandro Borin, Francesco Conteduca and Michele Mancini

EconStor Preprints from ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics

Abstract: In response to the invasion of Ukraine, the EU and most other advanced economies imposed extensive sanctions on Russia, intending to harm its production capabilities and hinder its economic activities by restricting its access to international trade and financial markets. This paper develops an empirical framework based on the synthetic control method to assess the impact of the war and the following sanctions on bilateral and sectoral exports to Russia almost in real time. The war and the following sanctions reduced aggregate exports to Russia by almost half between March-August, with the effects being stronger for sanctioning countries than for non-sanctioning ones, albeit with substantial country-level heterogeneity within each group. Exports to Russia in high-tech sectors-relatively more targeted by trade sanctions-have been disproportionately more affected.

Keywords: Synthetic Control; Russia; Sanctions; International trade; War (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C54 F13 F51 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022, Revised 2022
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis, nep-int and nep-tra
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Related works:
Journal Article: The Real-Time Impact of the War on Russian Imports: A Synthetic Control Method Approach (2024)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:esprep:265325

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