House price forecasts in times of crisis: Do forecasters herd?

Christian Pierdzioch, Jan Christoph Rülke and Georg Stadtmann

No 318, Discussion Papers from European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics

Abstract: We used Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006 - 2010 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from) the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices, where anti-herding is less strong in the case of medium-term forecasts, especially in the case of housing starts.

Keywords: Forecasts of house prices and housing starts; Herding (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C33 D84 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for, nep-mac and nep-ure
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:euvwdp:318

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