Forecasting metal prices: Do forecasters herd?

Christian Pierdzioch, Jan-Christoph Rülke and Georg Stadtmann

No 325, Discussion Papers from European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics

Abstract: We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters that foster incentives to scatter forecasts around a consensus forecast.

Keywords: Metal prices; Forecasting; Forecaster (anti-)herding (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C33 G17 L61 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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Journal Article: Forecasting metal prices: Do forecasters herd? (2013)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:euvwdp:325

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