The information content of money in forecasting Euro area inflation

Helge Berger () and Emil Stavrev ()

No 2008/15, Discussion Papers from Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics

Abstract: This paper contributes to the debate on the role of money in monetary policy by analyzing the information content of money in forecasting euro-area inflation. We compare the predictive performance within and among various classes of structural and empirical models in a consistent framework using Bayesian and other estimation techniques. We find that money contains relevant information for inflation in some model classes. Money-based New Keynesian DSGE models and VARs incorporating money perform better than their cashless counterparts. But there are also indications that the contribution of money has its limits. The marginal contribution of money to forecasting accuracy is often small, money adds little to dynamic factor models, and it worsens forecasting accuracy of partial equilibrium models. Finally, non-monetary models dominate monetary models in an all-out horserace.

Keywords: Information content of money; inflation forecasting; New Keynesian model; DSGE model; P* model; Two-pillar Phillips curve; VAR model; general dynamic factor model; Bayesian estimation; Euro area (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C30 E31 E40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/28082/1/590613952.PDF (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: The information content of money in forecasting euro area inflation (2012)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:200815

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Discussion Papers from Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics ().