Anchoring inflation expectations: A teaching treatment and its persistence through the 2025 German federal election

Christine Gockel and Till Strohsal

No 2026/13, Discussion Papers from Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics

Abstract: We study how inflation expectations can be anchored through different forms of communication and whether such anchoring survives political change. Using a two-wave panel RCT around the 2025 German federal election, we show that providing the ECB's target and projections lowers expectations by about 100 basis points. We then introduce a teaching-style intervention explaining the ECB's institutional role using simple language and an intuitive metaphor, which proves equally effective. Treatment effects persist through the election, and partisan polarization remains modest. Our results suggest that well-designed communication - combining quantitative information with clear explanations of institutional responsibility - can durably anchor beliefs even in changing political environments.

Keywords: elections; anchoring; inflation expectations; central bank communication; survey experiment; randomized controlled trial (RCT) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D84 E31 E42 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:342441

DOI: 10.17169/refubium-52043

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