Housing Assistance and Eviction Prevention During Compound Crises: Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic

Johane Dikgang, Isaiah Magambo, Festus O. Amadu and Alexandre Magnier

No 1735 [rev.], GLO Discussion Paper Series from Global Labor Organization (GLO)

Abstract: During economic downturns, urban policymakers must evaluate whether housing aid effectively prevents evictions. Analyzing 207,203 observations from the Understanding America Study during COVID-19 and using recursive bivariate probit models with instrumental variables, we find that housing aid is linked to a 4.3% reduced likelihood of eviction. For households with access to credit, this reduction increases to 6.2%. An inverted-U trend appears: households with one to two credit sources experience over 39% reductions, while those with three or more credit sources see smaller effects of approximately 4.1%. This trend indicates financial stability rather than overleverage; more credit sources are associated with higher creditworthiness and less reliance on aid. These findings were consistent across the different estimation methods. This implies that combining housing assistance with financial inclusion strategies that emphasize credit quality over quantity could improve eviction prevention during economic downturns.

Keywords: housing assistance; eviction prevention; financial fragility; credit access; COVID-19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H53 I32 I38 R21 R38 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hre and nep-uep
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