Impacts of Social and Economic Factors on the Transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China

Yun Qiu, Xi Chen and Wei Shi

No 494 [pre.], GLO Discussion Paper Series from Global Labor Organization (GLO)

Abstract: This paper models the local and cross-city transmissions of the novel coronavirus in China between January 19 and February 29 in 2020. We examine the role of various socioeconomic mediating factors, including public health measures that encourage social distancing in local communities. Weather characteristics two weeks ago are used as instrumental variables for causal inference. Stringent quarantine, city lockdown, and local public health measures imposed since late January significantly decreased the virus transmission rate. The virus spread was contained by the middle of February. Population out ow from the outbreak source region posed a higher risk to the destination regions than other factors including geographic proximity and similarity in economic conditions. We quantify the effects of different public health measures in reducing the number of infections through counterfactual analyses. Over 1.4 million infections and 56,000 deaths could have been avoided as a result of the national and provincial public health measures imposed in late January in China.

Keywords: 2019 novel coronavirus; transmission; quarantine (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C23 I12 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cna, nep-hea, nep-tra and nep-ure
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (183)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China (2020)
Working Paper: Impacts of Social and Economic Factors on the Transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China (2020)
Working Paper: Impacts of Social and Economic Factors on the Transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China (2020)
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