Global recessions and booms: What do probit models tell us?

Ursel Baumann, Ramón Gómez Salvador and Franz Seitz

No 61, Weidener Diskussionspapiere from University of Applied Sciences Amberg-Weiden (OTH)

Abstract: We present non-linear binary Probit models to capture the turning points in global economic activity as well as in advanced and emerging economies from 1980 to 2016. For that purpose, we use four different business cycle dating methods to identify the regimes (upswings, downswings). We find that especially activity-driven variables are important indicators for the turning points. Moreover, we identify similarities and differences between the different regions in this respect.

Keywords: Global GDP; Probit; Turning Points (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C34 C35 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:hawdps:61

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