Non-Linear Dynamics and Predictable Forecast Errors: An Application to the OECD Forecasts for Germany

Angelos A. Antzoulatos and Bernd Wilfling

No 223, HWWA Discussion Papers from Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA)

Abstract: Recent theoretical advances in consumption theory suggest that there may exist predictable consumption surges which, if not taken sufficiently into account in forecasting, may lead to predictable forecast errors. We use this insight to identify economic variables that might help improve the OECD's forecasts for Germany's consumption and GDP growth.

Keywords: Consumption; GDP; macroeconomic forecasts; non-linear dynamics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E21 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2003
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Working Paper: Non-Linear Dynamics and Predictable Forecast Errors: An Application to the OECD Forecasts for Germany (2003)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:hwwadp:26169

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