Demographic change and consumption: A long-term simulation analysis

Silvia Stiller

No 99, HWWA Discussion Papers from Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA)

Abstract: This study investigates the influence of the demographic ageing process in Germany on the long-term economic growth path. For this purpose a macroeconomic simulation model which combines demographic forecasts with a modified Ramsey growth model is applied. Special focus is put on the consumption effects of population ageing and the potential to counter those by rising fertility or permanent immigration. The simulation results illustrate that in the medium and in the long terms per capita consumption is among all demographic scenarios lower than without demographic changes. Permanent immigration can retard the consumption decrease. Rising fertility even reinforces the decline of consumption in the examined period of time.

Keywords: Population Ageing; Consumption; Growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E17 E21 J11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2000
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/19452/1/99.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:hwwadp:26252

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in HWWA Discussion Papers from Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics ().