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Just stop oil? The economic and environmental consequences of ending domestic oil and gas production

Kathryn Porter

No 145, IEA Discussion Papers from Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA)

Abstract: * No credible forecast shows UK oil and gas demand falling to zero by 2050, even under net zero scenarios - oil and gas are essential ingredients in plastics, fertilisers, medicines and modern technology * The 78% headline tax rate is forcing a decline in North Sea production and driving investment overseas, with the workforce forecast to halve to as low as 57,000 by the early 2030s - losing up to 1,000 jobs a month * Replacing domestic production with imports increases overall emissions by around 50% and risks gas shortages on cold winter days as early as 2026/27

Date: 2026
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-env
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