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How might a central bank report uncertainty?

Ray C. Fair

No 2014-25, Economics Discussion Papers from Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)

Abstract: An important question for central banks is how they should report the uncertainty of their forecasts. This paper discusses a way in which a central bank could report the uncertainty of its forecasts in a world in which it used a single macroeconometric model to make its forecasts and guide its policies. Suggestions are then made as to what might be feasible for a central bank to report given that it is unlikely to be willing to commit to a single model. A particular model is used as an illustration.

Keywords: central bank; uncertainty; stochastic simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E50 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-cmp, nep-mac and nep-mon
Date: 2014
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http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/discussionpapers/2014-25
https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/97695/1/788469320.pdf (application/pdf)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201425

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