How might a central bank report uncertainty?
Ray C. Fair
No 2014-25, Economics Discussion Papers from Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
An important question for central banks is how they should report the uncertainty of their forecasts. This paper discusses a way in which a central bank could report the uncertainty of its forecasts in a world in which it used a single macroeconometric model to make its forecasts and guide its policies. Suggestions are then made as to what might be feasible for a central bank to report given that it is unlikely to be willing to commit to a single model. A particular model is used as an illustration.
Keywords: central bank; uncertainty; stochastic simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E50 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-cmp, nep-mac and nep-mon
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201425
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Economics Discussion Papers from Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Contact information at EDIRC.
Series data maintained by ZBW - German National Library of Economics ().