How might a central bank report uncertainty?
Ray C. Fair
No 2014-25, Economics Discussion Papers from Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
An important question for central banks is how they should report the uncertainty of their forecasts. This paper discusses a way in which a central bank could report the uncertainty of its forecasts in a world in which it used a single macroeconometric model to make its forecasts and guide its policies. Suggestions are then made as to what might be feasible for a central bank to report given that it is unlikely to be willing to commit to a single model. A particular model is used as an illustration.
Keywords: central bank; uncertainty; stochastic simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E50 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-cmp, nep-mac and nep-mon
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201425
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Economics Discussion Papers from Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics ().