World Economy Summer 2016 - World Economy with somewhat more steam

Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, Klaus Gern, Philipp Hauber, Stefan Kooths and Ulrich Stolzenburg

No 19, Kiel Institute Economic Outlook from Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel)

Abstract: The world economy seems to have stabilized in the first months of the year. The underlying growth dynamics, however, remain weak although we expect growth to accelerate somewhat going forward. This year, global output (at PPP exchange rates) will expand by 3.1 percent, which is close to last year's pace. In 2017, we expect a modest acceleration to 3.5 percent. Growth in advanced economies remains tepid. It is becoming clearer and clearer that structural rather than cyclical factors are holding back advanced economies which cannot be healed by ever more expansionary monetary policies or fiscal stimulus. The impulse from cheaper oil to real disposable incomes is fading out in advanced economies, while at the same time prospects in many emerging economies have improved with the partial recovery in commodity prices. However, also in this group of countries structural impediments to growth stand in the way of a swift recovery.

Keywords: Brexit; China; real M1; Euro area; advanced economies; emerging economies; Japan; Russia; ASEAN (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:ifwkeo:19

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