 Pro-poor growth in Bolivia: accounting for external shocks and policy reformsJann Lay, Rainer Thiele and Manfred Wiebelt () No 1231, Kiel Working Papers from Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) Abstract: This paper analyzes how major external shocks and policy reforms affect Bolivia's ability to achieve pro-poor growth. Employing a recursive-dynamic CGE model, it considers three different scenarios: an optimistic baseline scenario that roughly extrapolates the situation prevailing before the onset of the recent economic crisis; a more realistic scenario that accounts for two important negative external shocks (declining capital inflows and El Ni?o); and a scenario that captures the combined effect of the shocks and two major reform projects (development of the gas sector and deregulation of the urban labor market). It turns out that the shocks have not only contributed to the economic crisis, but that they are also likely to impair Bolivia's medium-term development prospects, leading to marked increases in both urban and rural poverty. If the reform projects were implemented, their impact on growth would be large enough to slightly overcompensate the impact of the negative external shocks. The poverty increase caused by the shocks would be more than offset for urban households, but reinforced for rural households. Keywords: Pro-poor Growth; CGE Analysis; Bolivia (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1231 Access Statistics for this paper More papers in Kiel Working Papers from Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) Contact information at EDIRC. |
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