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Evolvement of uniformity and volatility in the stressed global financial village

Dror Y. Kenett, Matthias Raddant, Thomas Lux and Ben-Jacob, Eshel

No 1739, Kiel Working Papers from Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)

Abstract: In the current era of strong worldwide market couplings the global financial village became highly prone to systemic collapses, events that can rapidly sweep through out the entire village. Here we present a new methodology to assess and quantify inter-market relations. The approach is based on the correlations between the market index, the index volatility, the market Index Cohesive Force and the meta-correlations (correlations between the intra-correlations.) We investigated the relations between six important world markets - U.S., U.K., Germany, Japan, China and India from January 2000 until December 2010. We found that while the developed western'' markets (U.S., U.K., Germany), are highly correlated, the interdependencies between these markets and the developing eastern'' markets (India and China) are very volatile and with noticeable maxima at times of global world events (2001: 9/11-attacks, 2003: Iraq war, SARS, etc). The Japanese market switches identity'' - it switches between periods of high meta-correlations with the western'' markets and periods that it behaves more similar to the eastern'' markets. These and additional reported findings illustrate that the methodological framework provides a way to quantify the evolvement of interdependencies in the global market, to evaluate a world financial network and quantify changes in the world inter market relations. Such changes can be used as precursors to the agitation of the global financial village. Hence, the new approach can help to develop a sensitive financial seismograph'' to detect early signs of global financial crises so they can be treated before developed into world wide events.

Keywords: financial markets; comovement; financial crisis; stock correlations; networks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G15 G01 F36 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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