Model pooling and changes in the informational content of predictors: An empirical investigation for the euro area

Tim Schwarzmüller

No 1982, Kiel Working Papers from Kiel Institute for the World Economy

Abstract: I study the performance of single predictor bridge equation models as well as a wide range of model selection and pooling techniques, including Mallows model averaging and Cross-Validation model averaging, for short-term forecasting euro area GDP growth. I explore to what extend model selection and model pooling techniques are able to outperform a simple autoregressive benchmark model in the periods before, during and after the Great Recession. I find that single predictor bridge equation models suffer a great variation in the forecast performance relative to the benchmark model over the analysed sub-samples. Moreover, model selection techniques turn out to produce quite poor forecasts in some sub-samples. On the contrary, model pooling based on the Cross-Validation and the Mallows criterion provide a very stable and accurate forecast performance.

Keywords: short-term forecasting; Great Recession; mixed frequency data; model selection and model pooling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec, nep-for and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1982

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