Introducing dominant currency pricing in the ECB's global macroeconomic model
Georgios Georgiadis and
No 2136, Kiel Working Papers from Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
A large share of global trade being priced and invoiced primarily in US dollar rather than the exporter's or the importer's currency has important implications for the transmission of shocks. We introduce this "dominant currency pricing" (DCP) into ECB-Global, the ECB's macroeconomic model for the global economy. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to incorporate DCP into a major global macroeconomic model used at central banks or international organisations. In ECB-Global, DCP affects in particular the role of expenditure switching and the US dollar exchange rate for spillovers: In case of a shock in a non-US economy that alters the value of its currency multilaterally, expenditure switching occurs only through imports; in case of a US shock that alters the value of the US dollar multilaterally, expenditure switching occurs both in non-US economies' imports and - as these are imports of their trading partners - exports. Overall, under DCP the US dollar exchange rate is a major driver of global trade, even for transactions that do not involve the US. In order to illustrate the usefulness of ECB-Global and DCP for policy analysis, we explore the implications of the Euro rivaling the US dollar as a second dominant currency in global trade. According to ECB-Global, in such a scenario the global spillovers from US shocks are smaller, while those from euro area shocks are amplified; domestic euro area monetary policy effectiveness is hardly affected by the Euro becoming a second globally dominant currency in trade.
Keywords: global macroeconomic modelling; dominant currency paradigm; spillovers (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F42 E52 C50 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-eec, nep-mac and nep-mon
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Journal Article: Introducing dominant‐currency pricing in the ECB's global macroeconomic model (2020)
Working Paper: Introducing dominant currency pricing in the ECB’s global macroeconomic model (2019)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:2136
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Kiel Working Papers from Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics ().