From Theory to Policy with Gravitas: A Solution to the Mystery of the Excess Trade Balances

Gabriel Felbermayr and Yoto Yotov

No 2138, Kiel Working Papers from Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel)

Abstract: Bilateral trade balances often play an important role in the international trade policy debate. Disturbingly, several studies argue that the gravity model of trade fails when confronted with bilateral trade balances data, dubbing this "The Mystery of the Excess Trade Balances". Capitalizing on developments in the related literature, we solve the mystery and show that the gravity model explains bilateral trade balances well. We also uncover a new property of the structural multilateral resistances as asymmetric trade costs. This is exactly what solves the mystery. Our analysis suggests that, on average, there is little room for trade cost asymmetries due to 'unfair' policies to lead to bilateral trade imbalances. However, we also identify sectors (e.g., Mining and Services), where the modeling of the direct bilateral trade costs in the gravity model can be improved, including the possibility for 'unfair'/asymmetric policies to play a more significant role.

Keywords: Trade Imbalances; Structural Gravity Estimation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F1 F13 F14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021, Revised 2021
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (24)

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Related works:
Journal Article: From theory to policy with gravitas: A solution to the mystery of the excess trade balances (2021)
Working Paper: From Theory to Policy with Gravitas: A Solution to the Mystery of the Excess Trade Balances (2019)
Working Paper: From Theory to Policy with Gravitas: A Solution to the Mystery of the Excess Trade Balances (2019)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:2138

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