Quantifying the supply and demand effects of natural disasters using monthly trade data

Gabriel Felbermayr, Jasmin Gröschl and Benedikt Heid
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Jasmin Groeschl

No 2172, Kiel Working Papers from Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel)

Abstract: We develop a simple methodology to estimate monthly aggregate supply and demand conditions from bilateral international trade data for about 180 countries and 40 years. We apply our method to measure the short-run effects of natural disasters. In line with theoretical considerations, we find large, persistent negative effects of earthquakes and storms on supply and demand for credit-constrained countries. In other economies, supply is temporarily depressed while demand is temporarily up after a disaster. Using a consistent structural trade model, we back out monthly aggregate productivity measures. We quantify how the adverse productivity effects of the 1992 earthquake in Nicaragua and the 2011 Tohoku earthquake in Japan impacted those countries and their trade partners conditional on different assumptions about trade costs.

Keywords: economic effects of natural disasters; monthly trade data; dynamic quantitative trade model; earthquakes; storms; aggregate productivity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C68 F14 F18 O47 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021, Revised 2021
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-env and nep-int
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Related works:
Working Paper: Quantifying the Supply and Demand Effects of Natural Disasters Using Monthly Trade Data (2020)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:2172

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