Does welcoming refugees attract more migrants? The myth of the "Merkel effect"

Jasper Dag Tjaden and Tobias Heidland

No 2194, Kiel Working Papers from Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel)

Abstract: In 2015, German Chancellor Angela Merkel decided to allow over a million asylum seekers to cross the border into Germany. One key concern at the time was that her decision would signal an open-door policy to aspiring migrants worldwide - thus, increasing migration to Germany in the long-term. With the continued global rise in forced displacement, Merkel's decision in 2015 provides a unique case study for the fundamental question of whether welcoming migration policies have sustained effects on migration towards destination countries. We analyze an extensive range of data on migration inflows, intentions, and interest between 2000 and 2020. The results reject the 'pull effect' hypothesis while reaffirming states' capacity to adapt to changing contexts and regulate migration.

Keywords: migration; migration policy; asylum and refugee policy; policy signaling; pull effects (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F22 F68 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec, nep-int, nep-isf, nep-mig and nep-ure
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:2194

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