Macroeconomic Forecasts and the Nature of Economic Shocks in Germany

Jörg Döpke

No 972, Kiel Working Papers from Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel)

Abstract: The paper investigates the sources of macroeconomic forecast errors in Germany. The predictions of the so-called "six leading" research institutes are analyzed. The forecast errors are discussed within an aggregate demand/supply scheme. Structural Vector Autoregressive Models are estimated to identify the shocks underlying the business cycle. It is tested whether these shocks can explain the forecast errors. The empirical results suggest that, in general, the shocks are helpful in explaining the forecast errors. However, the correlations are rather weak. In addition, lagged shocks help also to explain the mispredictions of the institutes. Thus, forecasters' expectations are not rational.

Keywords: Forecast error evaluation; Structural VARs; Business cycles (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C52 C53 E32 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2000
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/17913/1/kap972.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Macroeconomic forecasts and the nature of economic shocks in Germany (2001)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:972

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Kiel Working Papers from Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics ().