Deregulated day-ahead electricity markets in Southeast Europe: Price forecasting and comparative structural analysis

Antanina Hryshchuk and Stefan Lessmann

No 2018-009, IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers from Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series"

Abstract: Many Southeast European countries are currently undergoing a process of liberalization of electric power markets. The paper analyses day-ahead price dynamics on some of these new markets and in Germany as a benchmark of a completely decentralized Western European market. To that end, several price forecasting methods including autoregressive approaches, multiple linear regression, and neural networks are considered. These methods are tested on hourly day-ahead price data during four two-week periods corresponding to different seasons and varying levels of volatility in all selected markets. The most influential fundamental factors are determined and performance of forecasting techniques is analysed with respect to the age of the market, its degree of liberalization, and the level of volatility. A comparison of Southeast European electricity markets of different age with the older German market is made and clusters of similar Southeast European markets are identified.

Keywords: ARIMA models; energy forecasting; time series models; neural networks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C00 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (21)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/230720/1/irtg1792dp2018-009.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:irtgdp:2018009

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers from Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series" Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics ().