Model risk of contingent claims

Nils Detering and Natalie Packham

No 2018-036, IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers from Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series"

Abstract: Paralleling regulatory developments, we devise value-at-risk and expected shortfall type risk measures for the potential losses arising from using misspecied models when pricing and hedging contingent claims. Essentially, losses from model risk correspond to losses realized on a perfectly hedged position. Model uncertainty is expressed by a set of pricing models, relative to which potential losses are determined. Using market data, a unied loss distribution is attained by weighing models according to a relative likelihood criterion. Examples demonstrate the magnitude of model risk and corresponding capital buers necessary to suciently protect trading book positions against unexpected losses from model risk.

Keywords: Model risk; parameter uncertainty; hedge error; value-at-risk; expected shortfall (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G13 G32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (13)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:irtgdp:2018036

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