Forecasting a telecommunications provider's market share

Nikolaos Kanellos, Dimitrios Katsianis and Dimitris Varoutas ()

31st European Regional ITS Conference, Gothenburg 2022: Reining in Digital Platforms? Challenging monopolies, promoting competition and developing regulatory regimes from International Telecommunications Society (ITS)

Abstract: Telecommunications providers' market share risks stem from uncertainties due to overall market performance and competition strategies adopted by providers. In this paper, a framework that allows risk-adjusted forecasting of a provider's market share is presented. Two different stochastic processes are deployed to model the effects of churn and attraction strategies, as well as market performance. Impact results are obtained through the application of Monte Carlo simulation. The proposed framework was verified and validated with the use of a typical test scenario. Application findings are consistent with relative churn and attraction management literature, indicating a best performer advantage and a minimum systematic risk impact on a provider's market share expectations. The proposed framework can help telecommunication providers to understand and adjust their strategies regarding churn management and new customer attraction and can be extended to include market structure analysis and forecasts as well.

Keywords: Telecommunications; market share analysis; risk analysis; Markov decision process; Ito process; Monte Carlo Simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:itse22:265639

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