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Fiscal Spending Multiplier Calculations based on Input-Output Tables – with an Application to EU Members

Toralf Pusch () and Ansgar Rannenberg ()

No 1/2011, IWH Discussion Papers from Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH)

Abstract: Fiscal spending multiplier calculations have been revived in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Much of the current literature is based on VAR estimation methods and DSGE models. The aim of this paper is not a further deepening of this literature but rather to implement a calculation method of multipliers which is suitable for open economies like EU member states. To this end, Input-Output tables are used as by this means the import intake of domestic demand components can be isolated in order to get an appropriate base for the calculation of the relevant import quotas. The difference of this method is substantial - on average the calculated multipliers are 15% higher than the conventional GDP fiscal spending multiplier for EU members. Multipliers for specific spending categories are comparably high, ranging between 1.4 and 1.8 for many members of the EU. GDP drops due to budget consolidation might therefore be substantial if monetary policy is not able to react in an expansionary manner.

Keywords: Fiscal spending multiplier calculation; Input-Output calculus; incomeexpenditure model; European Union; stimulus; consolidation; Fiskalpolitischer Ausgabenmultiplikator; Multiplikator; Fiskalpolitik; Input-Output-Rechnung; Europäische Union; Konjunkturpolitik; Konsolidierung (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: B22 C67 E12 E62 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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