A Dynamic Approach to Interest Rate Convergence in Selected Euro-candidate Countries

Hubert Gabrisch and Lucjan Orlowski

No 10/2009, IWH Discussion Papers from Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH)

Abstract: We advocate a dynamic approach to monetary convergence to a common currency that is based on the analysis of financial system stability. Accordingly, we empirically test volatility dynamics of the tenyear sovereign bond yields of the 2004 EU accession countries in relation to the eurozone yields during the January 2, 2001 untill January 22, 2009 sample period. Our results show a varied degree of bond yield comovements, the most pronounced for the Czech Republic, Slovenia and Poland, and weaker for Hungary and Slovakia. However, since the EU accession, we find some divergence of relative bond yields. We argue that a static specification of the Maastricht criterion for longterm bond yields is not fully conducive for advancing stability of financial systems in the eurocandidate countries.

Keywords: interest rate convergence; common currency area; new EU Member States; interest rate risk; GARCH; Zinskonvergenz; Währungsunion; neue EU-Länder; Zinsrisiken; GARCH (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E44 F36 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:iwh-10-09

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