Market analysis and forecast for beef and pork production in Germany 2025/2026

Josef Efken

No 274, Thünen Working Papers from Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institute, Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries

Abstract: From a global perspective, the pork and poultry markets are fairly balanced. Poultry meat production and demand both increased. In contrast, there was a strong excess of demand on the beef market, which led to significant price increases worldwide. In Germany, demand for meat and meat products is stagnating in terms of volume, with prices remaining high at both producer and consumer levels. This development is accompanied by a shift in demand towards more affordable products. The decline in cattle and pig stocks in Germany over the past 5 to 10 years has been accompanied by a reduction in slaughtering of around 20%. This has led to significant adjustments in the structure of slaughterhouses and meat processing. Germany is also experiencing a shortage of slaughter cattle, resulting in a huge increase in producer prices in the current year 2025. Despite the high producer price level, large numbers of calves continue to be exported rather than fattened. It is clear that fattening is in many cases still not profitable. A decline in beef slaughter volumes of just under 7% is expected for 2025. A slight increase of just under 2% is estimated for 2026. There is uncertainty here regarding the impact of bluetongue disease on production, so the assumed increase may well not materialise. Since mid-2023, the producer price for slaughter pigs has fallen significantly by almost 20% both across the EU and in Germany, and this trend is expected to continue until July 2025. After years of massive decline, the pig population in Germany is currently falling only slightly. However, many farms are still giving up pig farming; currently more than 3% compared to the previous year. As in 2024, there will be a slight increase in the volume of pork slaughtered in 2025. In fact, slightly larger quantities were exported in 2024 and are expected to be exported in 2025, despite the continued presence of ASF. Domestic consumption has been stagnating since 2023. The rather stagnant development of production and consumption is expected to continue in 2026.

Keywords: Meat production; meat demand; pork; beef; meat consumption; market analysis; Fleischerzeugung; Fleischnachfrage; Schweinefleisch; Rindfleisch; Fleischverbrauch; Marktanalyse (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:jhtiwp:331873

DOI: 10.3220/253-2025-185

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