Population forecasting with the Box-Jenkins approach

Peter Pflaumer

No 129, Discussion Papers, Series II from University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy"

Abstract: The use of the Box-Jenkins approach for forecasting the population of the United States to the year 2080 is discussed. The forecasts are based on data for 1900-1980. It is shown that no major difference exists between the Box-Jenkins approach and parabolic trend curves when making long-range predictions. An investigation of forecasting accuracy indicates that the Box-Jenkins method produces population forecasts that are at least as reliable as those done with more traditional demographic methods.

Date: 1991
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