Die ökonometrische Spezifikation eines sequentiellen Modells der Rückkehrentscheidungen ausländischer Arbeiter aus dem Gastland in ihr Heimatland

Hans G. Seifert-Vogt

No 57, Discussion Papers, Series II from University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy"

Abstract: This paper provides the first step of a planned econometric analysis of the factors influencing the remigration decisions of Turkish guest-workers in the FRG back to their home-land: the specification of a decisiontheoretically founded sequential discrete-choice model. At this it is presupposed that a panel data set will be available with observations of the individual remigration decisions and of individual characteristics determining the job-carreer and the related income streams of the migrants. The specification rests on the optimality principle of dynamic stochastic optimization theory, which allows only a numerical computation of the likelihood function. The iterative procedure for this is an essential output of the analysis of this paper which will serve as an input for the second step of the planned econometric analysis, namely the econometric estimation and testing of the model.

Date: 1988
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