"From here on it got rough..." – Misery Indices and German Federal Governments 1951 to 2024

Ullrich Heilemann and Roland Schuhr

No 184, Working Papers from University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science

Abstract: Okun's Misery Index (MI), which is the sum of the rates of unemployment and inflation, is a popular measure used to assess the economic situation, as well as (macroeconomic) 'economic discomfort' and government performance. We use three variants of the MI to evaluate legislative periods and Federal Chancellors between 1951 and 2024. The rankings calculated using these variants differ notably, particularly until the mid-1970s. However, the differences are limited thereafter. The results contrast sharply with those of the Barro Misery Index, a comparative measure of government performance. The findings have both sobering and reassuring implications for politics. Usual macroeconomic interventions do not affect MIs and BMIs to a sizeable degree.

Keywords: Macroeconomic discomfort; Misery Index; Barro Misery Index; Government popularity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C13 E63 H11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:leiwps:334494

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