Working Papers

From German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin
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46: The fate of the passbook: Why it vanished in the US but survived in Germany during the stagflation period (1966-1983)

Sebastian Knake

45: Inefficient forecast narratives: A BERT-based approach

Alexander Foltas

44: Quantifying priorities in business cycle reports: Analysis of recurring textual patterns around peaks and troughs

Alexander Foltas

43: Firm expectations and news: Micro v macro

Benjamin Born, Zeno Enders, Manuel Menkhoff, Gernot Müller and Knut Niemann

42: On FIRE, news, and expectations

Benjamin Born, Zeno Enders and Gernot Müller

41: Changing Forecasts - Forecasting Change: The US market for savings deposits in econometric models and the market for econometric models among depository institutions, 1960s to 1980s

Sebastian Knake

40: The German inflation trauma: Weimar's policy lessons between persistence and reconstruction

David Barkhausen and Sebastian Teupe

39: Testing for differences in survey-based density expectations: A compositional data approach

Jonas Dovern, Alexander Glas and Geoff Kenny

38: Eliciting expectation uncertainty from private households

Jonas Dovern

37: Experience effects in economics lessons from past and current crises

Ulrike Malmendier

36: Risk management, expectations and global finance: The case of Deutsche Bank 1970-1990

Alexander Nützenadel

35: Identity, instability, and investors: An empirical investigation of the home bias

Thilo Rene Huning and Fabian Wahl

34: A mirror to the world. Taking the German news magazine Der Spiegel into a topic modeling/sentiment perspective

Lino Wehrheim

33: Heterogeneous savers and their inflation expectation during German industrialization: Social class, wealth, and gender

Sibylle H. Lehmann-Hasemeyer, Andreas Neumayer and Jochen Streb

32: Optimism gone bad? The persistent effects of traumatic experiences on investment decisions

Chi Hyun Kim

31: Turn, turn, turn: A digital history of German historiography, 1950-2019

Lino Wehrheim, Tobias Alexander Jopp and Mark Spoerer

30: The sound of silence: On the (in)visibility of economists in the media

Lino Wehrheim

29: Expectation dispersion, uncertainty, and the reaction to news

Benjamin Born, Jonas Dovern and Zeno Enders

28: Erwartungs(un)sicherheit durch Gerichte Methoden und Chiffren der Justiz

Lukas Herget and Louis Pahlow

27: Diskurs, Narrativ, Sonderweg, Hitler, Turn: Konjunkturen geschichtswissenschaftlicher Begriffe im "Clio Viewer"

Lino Wehrheim, Tobias Alexander Jopp and Mark Spoerer

26: German trade forecasts since 1970: An evaluation using the panel dimension

Christoph Behrens

25: Foreign debt, capital controls, and secondary markets: Theory and evidence from Nazi Germany

Andrea Papadia and Claudio Schioppa

24: Sharks and minnows in a shoal of words: Measuring latent ideological positions of German economic research institutes based on text mining techniques

Sami Diaf, Jörg Döpke, Ulrich Fritsche and Ida Rockenbach

23: German forecasters' narratives: How informative are German business cycle forecast reports?

Karsten Müller

22: Business-cycle reports and the efficiency of macroeconomic forecasts for Germany

Alexander Foltas and Christian Pierdzioch

21: On the efficiency of German growth forecasts: An empirical analysis using quantile random forests

Alexander Foltas and Christian Pierdzioch

20: The role of information and experience for households' inflation expectations

Christian Conrad, Zeno Enders and Alexander Glas

19: Testing investment forecast efficiency with textual data

Alexander Foltas

18: Coping with Disasters: Two Centuries of International Official Lending

Sebastian Horn, Carmen Reinhart and Christoph Trebesch

17: Active, or passive? Revisiting the role of fiscal policy in the Great Inflation

Stephanie Ettmeier and Alexander Kriwoluzky

16: Keynes, Inflation, and the Public Debt: "How to Pay for the War" as a Policy Prescription for Financial Repression?

Sebastian Teupe

15: How Do Firms Form Expectations of Aggregate Growth? New Evidence from a Large-scale Business Survey

Jonas Dovern, Lena Sophia Müller and Klaus Wohlrabe

14: Quantifying Subjective Uncertainty in Survey Expectations

Fabian Krüger and Lora Pavlova

13: Bismarck to no Effect: Fertility Decline and the Introduction of Social Insurance in Prussia

Timothy Guinnane and Jochen Streb

12: Sovereign Bonds since Waterloo

Josefin Meyer, Carmen Reinhart and Christoph Trebesch

11: China’s Overseas Lending

Sebastian Horn, Carmen Reinhart and Christoph Trebesch

10: Monetary Policy Announcements and Expectations: Evidence from German Firms

Zeno Enders, Franziska Hünnekes and Gernot Müller

9: Evaluating the Joint Efficiency of German Trade Forecasts. A nonparametric multivariate approach

Christoph Behrens

8: The persistence of ownership inequality. Investors on the German stock exchanges, 1869 – 1945

Sibylle H. Lehmann-Hasemeyer and Andreas Neumayer

7: Discrimination against Foreigners. The Wuerttemberg Patent Law in Administrative Practice

Sibylle H. Lehmann-Hasemeyer and Jochen Streb

6: Inflation Expectations and the Recovery from the Great Depression in Germany

Volker Daniel and Lucas ter Steege

5: Erfahrung und Erinnerung als Konstituenten von Erwartungen im ökonomischen Kontext

Birger P. Priddat

4: Fictional expectations and the global media in the Greek debt crisis: A topic modeling approach

Volker Daniel, Magnus Neubert and Agnes Orban

3: Futurama. Business Forecasting and the Dynamics of Capitalism in the Interwar Period

Laetitia Lenel

2: Theories, techniques and the formation of German business cycle forecasts. Evidence from a survey among professional forecasters

Jörg Döpke, Ulrich Fritsche and Gaby Waldhof

1: Does Social Security Crowd Out Private Savings? The Case of Bismarck’s System of Social Insurance

Sibylle H. Lehmann-Hasemeyer and Jochen Streb