Revisiting CO2 emissions and global warming: Implications for society

Bibek Bhatta

No 2026/05, QBS Working Paper Series from Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School

Abstract: This paper revisits the relationship between CO2 emissions and global warming by analysing more than 70 million daily temperature observations from over 2000 weather stations across 51 countries, with records spanning from the pre-1900 era to 2024. Employing fixed effects models to isolate temperature trends from station-specific and seasonal variations, the study finds an overall warming trend of 0.0048°C [TAVG] per year, after controlling for urban built-up areas. The analysis reveals a significant disconnect between the rise in annual anthropogenic CO2 emissions and the rate of temperature change. Notably, the period of the sharpest warming occurred in the early 20th century when CO2 emission levels were modest. In contrast, subsequent periods with rapidly accelerating CO2 emissions experienced slower warming or even cooling trends. These findings challenge the conventional assumption that human-induced CO2 is the primary driver of global warming; they highlight key gaps in our understanding and necessitate not only a more critical approach across research, education, journalism, and organizational conduct, but also a thorough reassessment of the premise underlying current climate policies.

Keywords: Global warming; CO2 emissions; Temperature trends; Climate change; Climate policy; AGW (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C23 Q54 Q56 Q58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:qmsrps:202605

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