From forecasts to action: Helping before disasters strike

Lukas Mogge, Julian Roeckert and Kati Krähnert

RWI Impact Notes from RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung

Abstract: Recent impact evaluation shows that anticipatory humanitarian action based on meteorological forecasts helps vulnerable rural households cope with weather disasters. As climate change increases the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, humanitarian needs are rising. Anticipatory humanitarian action uses risk forecasts to provide assistance before disasters fully unfold. RWI researchers examined the impact of such anticipatory action in Mongolia, where extreme winter conditions lead to high livestock mortality and threaten the livelihoods of affected households. The study shows that poorer households benefit from the transfers in terms of livestock assets and food consumption. It also highlights the challenges of rigorously evaluating anticipatory action.

Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:rwiimp:341183

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