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How Stable Are Monetary Models of the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate? - A Time-varying Coefficient Approach

Joscha Beckmann (), Ansgar Belke and Michael Kühl ()

No 134, Ruhr Economic Papers from RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen

Abstract: This paper examines the significance of different fundamental regimes by applying various monetary models of the exchange rate to one of the politically most important exchange rates, the exchange rate of the US dollar vis-à-vis the euro (the DM). We use monthly data from 1975:01 to 2007:12. Applying a novel time-varying coefficient estimation approach, we come up with interesting properties of our empirical models. First, there is no stable long-run equilibrium relationship among fundamentals and exchange rates since the breakdown of BrettonWoods. Second, there are no recurring regimes, i.e. across different regimes either the coefficient values for the same fundamentals differ or the significance differs. Third, there is no regime in which no fundamentals enter. Fourth, the deviations resulting from the stepwise cointegrating relationship act as a significant error-correction mechanism. In other words, we are able to show that fundamentals play an important role in determining the exchange rate although their impact differs significantly across different subperiods.

Keywords: Structural exchange rate models; cointegration; structural breaks; switching regression; time-varying coefficient approach (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E44 F31 G12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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Working Paper: How Stable Are Monetary Models of the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate?: A Time-Varying Coefficient Approach (2009) Downloads
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