An evaluation of forecasting methods and forecast combination methods in goods management systems

Carsten Schneider, Matthias Klapper and Thomas Wenzel

No 1999,31, Technical Reports from Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen

Abstract: In this paper we use 4 different time series models to forecast sales in a goods management system. We use a variety of forecast combining techniques and measure the forecast quality by applying symmetric and asymmetric forecast quality measures. Simple, rank-, and criteria-based combining methods lead to an improvement of the individual time series models.

Keywords: ARX forecasts; dynamic linear model; combination of forecasts; goods management system; asymmetric loss function (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1999
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:sfb475:199931

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