Bias in nearest-neighbor hazard estimation

Rafael Weißbach and Holger Dette

No 2008,15, Technical Reports from Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen

Abstract: In nonparametric curve estimation, the smoothing parameter is critical for performance. In order to estimate the hazard rate, we compare nearest neighbor selectors that minimize the quadratic, the Kullback-Leibler, and the uniform loss. These measures result in a rule of thumb, a cross-validation, and a plug-in selector. A Monte Carlo simulation within the three-parameter exponentiated Weibull distribution indicates that a counter-factual normal distribution, as an input to the selector, does provide a good rule of thumb. If bias is the main concern, minimizing the uniform loss yields the best results, but at the cost of very high variability. Cross-validation has a similar bias to the rule of thumb, but also with high variability.

Keywords: hazard rate; kernel smoothing; bandwidth selection; nearest neighbor bandwidth; rule of thumb; plug-in; cross-validation; credit risk (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
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