Volatility modelling of CO2 emission allowance spot prices with regime-switching GARCH models

Thijs Benschopa and Brenda López Cabreraa

No 2014-050, SFB 649 Discussion Papers from Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk

Abstract: We analyse the short-term spot price of European Union Allowances (EUAs), which is of particular importance in the transition of energy markets and for the development of new risk management strategies. Due to the characteristics of the price process, such as volatility persistence, breaks in the volatility process and heavy-tailed distributions, we investigate the use of Markov switching GARCH (MS-GARCH) models on daily spot market data from the second trading period of the EU ETS. Emphasis is given to short-term forecasting of prices and volatility. We find that MS-GARCH models distinguish well between two states and that the volatility processes in the states are clearly different. This finding can be explained by the EU ETS design. Our results support the use of MS-GARCH models for risk management, especially because their forecasting ability is better than other Markov switching or simple GARCH models.

Keywords: CO2 Emission Allowances; CO2 Emission Trading; Spot Price Modelling; Markov Switching GARCH Models; Volatility Forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 G17 Q49 Q53 Q59 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/103791/1/797029869.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2014-050

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in SFB 649 Discussion Papers from Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics ().