The end of the diplomatic thaw between Japan and China: How geopolitical rivalry shapes bilateral relations

Kento Fukuta and Alexandra Sakaki

No 52/2025, SWP Comments from Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), German Institute for International and Security Affairs

Abstract: The relationship between Japan and China is of far-reaching importance for peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific, as the two countries are the world's fourth- and second-largest economies, respectively. Over the past 15 years, bilateral tensions have deepened markedly, even as the two countries have maintained close economic ties. During the one-year tenure of Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru (October 2024-October 2025), however, there were signs of a modest thaw in relations. In November 2024, Chinese President Xi Jinping described the relationship as being "in a critical phase of improvement and development". His statement was followed by a series of diplomatic exchanges and Beijing even agreed to lift import restrictions on Japanese fishery products and beef. Yet, the thaw remained limited. Beijing has reverted to a confrontational posture following remarks on Taiwan by Japan's new Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae in early November. The relationship remains fragile.

Keywords: Sino-Japanese relationship; Japan-China relations; Indo-Pacific; Ishiba Shigeru; Xi Jinping; Takaichi Sanae; geopolitical rivalry; security tensions; territorial dispute; Senkaku Islands; Diaoyu Islands; South China Sea; Taiwan; escalation; trade relations; US; Donald Trump; Germany; Europe; G7 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:swpcom:334571

DOI: 10.18449/2025C52

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