Predicting irregular migration: High hopes, meagre results

Steffen Angenendt, Anne Koch and Jasper Dag Tjaden

No 11/2023, SWP Research Papers from Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), German Institute for International and Security Affairs

Abstract: German and European migration policy operates in permanent crisis mode. Sudden increases in irregular immigration create a sense of loss of control, which is instrumentalised by populist forces. This has generated great interest in quantitative migration predictions. High expectations are placed in the AI-based tools currently under devel­op­ment for forecasting irregular migration. The potential applications of these tools are manifold. They range from managing and strengthening the EU's reception capacity and border protections to configuring humanitarian aid provision and longer-term planning of development programmes. There is a significant gap between the expectations placed in the new instruments and their practical utility. Technical limits exist, medium-term forecasts are methodologically implausible, and channels for feeding the results into political decision-making processes are lacking. The great demand for predictions is driven by the political functions of migration prediction, which include its uses in political communication, funding acquisition and legitimisation of political decisions. Investment in the quality of the underlying data will be more productive than developing a succession of new prediction tools. Funding for applications in emergency relief and development cooperation should be prioritised. Crisis early warning and risk analysis should also be strengthened and their networking improved.

Keywords: Migration; Migrationspolitik; Wanderungsprognosen; Vorhersage; Vorausschau; Displacement Forecasting; Krisenfrüherkennung; Risikoanalyse; Künstliche Intelligenz; maschinelles Lernen; Agentenbasierte Modellierung; predicting irregular migration; forecast; quantitative migration prediction; UNHCR; IOM; Frontex Risk Analysis Network (FRAN); Common Integrated Risk Analysis Model (CIRAM); Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC); Frontex; Pact on Migration and Asylum (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int and nep-mig
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:swprps:112023

DOI: 10.18449/2023RP11

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