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Population aging in healthcare - a minor issue? Evidence from Switzerland

Carsten Colombier ()

No 16-3, FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge from University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics

Abstract: Our study shows that population aging substantially affects healthcare expenditure (HCE). This conclusion supports the popular, but recently strongly contested, view that the coming population aging will threaten the fiscal sustainability of health systems. We contribute to this debate, first by estimating the determinants of Swiss healthcare expenditure (HCE) with outlier-robust dynamic regressions, and second, by projecting Swiss HCE based on the estimates produced and new population scenarios. Medical advances and GDP per capita also play a decisive role. Governments can mitigate HCE growth by improving the health status of the population and by stimulating cost-effective and productive medical advances.

Keywords: healthcare expenditure; population ageing; fiscal sustainability; advances in medical technology; robust MM estimator; long-term projections; bootstrap simulations; Gesundheitsausgaben; Alterung; finanzielle Nachhaltigkeit; medizinisch-technischer Fortschritt; robuster MM Schätzer; langfristige Ausgabenprojektionen; Bootstrapsimulationen (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H51 I18 C22 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hea
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Journal Article: Population ageing in healthcare – a minor issue? Evidence from Switzerland (2018) Downloads
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:uoccpe:163

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