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The European Commission's Scoreboard of Macroeconomic Imbalances: The impact of preferences on an early warning system

Tobias Knedlik

VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order from Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association

Abstract: The European Commission s Scoreboard of Macroeconomic Imbalances is a rare case of a publicly released early warning system. It allows the preferences of the politicians involved to be analysed with regard to the two potential errors of an early warning system missing a crisis and issuing a false alarm. Such an analysis is done for the first time in this article for early warning systems in general by using a standard signals approach, including a preference-based optimisation approach, to set thresholds. It is shown that, in general, the thresholds of the Commission s Scoreboard are set low (resulting in more alarm signals), as compared to a neutral stand.

JEL-codes: G01 F47 F53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec
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Working Paper: The European Commission’s Scoreboard of Macroeconomic Imbalances – The Impact of Preferences on an Early Warning System (2012) Downloads
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